24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Dec 25, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Watch out for </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>fresh wind slabs</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> that formed as yesterday’s strong southerly winds whipped around the several inches of snow (up to 5” near Cooke) that had fallen over the last four days. </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32638"><span><span><span><span><span><… person in Hyalite Canyon</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> south of Bozeman reported strong winds moving snow all day long yesterday, and Big Sky Resort had to close the summit because of strong winds.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>HEADS UP - snowfall early this morning will camouflage these fresh drifts and make them hard to identify.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Persistent slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> 1-2 ft deep remain possible across the entire forecast area. A weak layer of facets responsible for this problem is very easy to find in the snowpack. The odds of triggering one of these avalanches are higher on slopes loaded by yesterday’s strong southerly winds.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Where to travel</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> - The easiest option is to seek out slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness that are not steep enough to slide. Otherwise, if getting onto steeper terrain, choose slopes sheltered from yesterday’s strong winds and have a clean runout with no trees, rocks, or terrain traps that make the consequences of an avalanche worse.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Looking ahead</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>, with such a widespread persistent weak layer in the snowpack, the situation will have to get worse before it gets better. More snow coming through this weekend will make persistent slab avalanches more likely and larger, but in the long run can help to bury and heal this weak layer. Be patient and play it safe.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>With two types of avalanches possible today the avalanche danger is MODERATE with heightened avalanche conditions on recently wind loaded slopes</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar

Still Windy in Hyalite

Date
Activity
Skiing

Headed into Blackmore Basin today planning to keep it low angle and to see the effects of recent snow and wind. Moderate winds with strong gusts were transporting snow the entire day, and a stout windslab was widespread. All previous tracks on the main SE facing run were completely filled in. Asides from the wind transport and some small natural cornice drops I noticed no other major signs of instability, but still kept a solid margin from avalanche terrain.

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Mt Blackmore
Observer Name
Wyatt Hubbard

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Dec 24, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Heightened avalanche conditions exist. Human-triggered <strong>persistent slab </strong>and <strong>wind slab avalanches </strong>are possible. Over the last three days, light snowfall across the advisory area added up to 5” in Cooke City, with a trace to 3” elsewhere. Incremental loading gives us pause but is not likely to increase the avalanche danger outside of specific slopes where drifts of wind-loaded snow are thicker.</p>

<p><strong>Persistent Slab Avalanches:</strong> Persistent weak layers of sugary facets and feathery surface hoar buried 1-2 feet deep (deeper on wind-loaded slopes) sit below a slab of more cohesive snow across much of the advisory area. Observations and recent field videos from <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32632"><strong><span>Bacon Rind</span></strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32609"><strong><span>north of Bridger Bowl</span></strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32605"><strong><span>Lionhead</span></…; and <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32585"><strong><span>Cooke City</span></strong></a> all highlight this issue. Recent indicators of persistent slab instability include large collapses on low-angle slopes in Cooke City last weekend (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32603"><strong><span>observation 1</span></strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32604"><strong><span>observation 2</span></strong></a>) and multiple natural avalanches that failed on persistent weak layers last week when new and wind-drifted snow loaded slopes. These included several larger slides in <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32585"><span>Cooke City</span></a>, a natural avalanche on <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32548"><span>Saddle Peak</span></a> and a <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32615"><span>chute north of Bridger Bowl</span></a> (go to our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity"><strong><span>Avalanche Log</span></strong></a> for a full list). Obvious signs of instability, such as avalanches, collapsing and shooting cracks won’t be forthcoming today, but these, along with unstable test results and poor snowpack structure, direct us toward lower-angle terrain.</p>

<p>Recent drifting makes <strong>wind slab avalanches</strong> a hazard on specific terrain features and exacerbates persistent slab instability. Avoid steep, commonly wind-loaded slopes near ridgelines, below cornices and upper-elevation gullies to reduce the likelihood of triggering both wind slab and persistent slab avalanches (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/cross-loading-henderson-mountain"… 1</span></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/cross-loading-miller-ridge"><span…;). Visual clues of recent drifting, a stiffening of snow surfaces and shooting cracks are signs of potential instability.</p>

<p>Appropriate terrain selection is the solution to today’s avalanche problems. Selecting slopes less than 30 degrees steep without overhead hazard largely eliminates the risk of avalanches. Along with safe travel practices, good partners, and rescue gear, selecting lower-angle avalanche terrain sheltered from the wind with fewer terrain traps reduces the likelihood and consequences of a slide.</p>

<p>The danger is rated MODERATE.</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar

Monday, December 30, 6-8 p.m., Free Avalanche Awareness and Conditions Update, MAP Brewing.

Thin and Weak at Bacon Rind

Date
Activity
Skiing

Despite a couple of recent observations stating that Bacon Rind could use more snow, we decided to try it. Perhaps we should have listened. Total snow depths ranged from 15 to 24" (39-61 cm in our snowpits), or in shorthand... not enough snow!

We toured up to the top of the Skillet in the northern of the two primary Bacon Rind areas. The thin snowpack was primarily comprised of weak, sugary facets with a thin soft slab (Fist to 4 Finger hardness) on top. In 2/3 of the upper elevation snowpits, there was a layer of feathery surface hoar buried on top of the facets and below the soft slab. Snowpack tests generally indicated instability (ECTPV, ECTP3, ECTP11, and PST 20/100 end).

While we chose not to roll the dice, the slab was thin (7" thick maximum), and we observed indications (slab qualities) that an avalanche most likely would not break widely across a bowl. HOWEVER, similar to what Alex and I saw at Lionhead the day before, it won't take much new or wind-drifted snow to change the equation, driving the avalanche danger up and making avalanches large enough to bury or injure a skier or rider likely. 

For now, it seemed that barely buried logs, stumps, and rocks were the greatest hazard. Once it snows enough to change the skiing quality meaningfully, I will worry about recreating on terrain steeper than 30 degrees due to avalanches. 0.5" of SWE would drastically change the picture. 

Region
Southern Madison
Location (from list)
Bacon Rind
Observer Name
Dave Zinn