This is Mark Staples with the avalanche forecast for Tuesday, January 30th, at 7:00 a.m. sponsored by World Boards and the Avalanche Alliance. This forecast does not apply to operating ski areas.
This morning mountain temperatures are in the low to high 20s F, about 5 degrees colder than yesterday morning, and 15-30 degrees warmer than valley temperatures. Winds from the W and NW are blowing 14-25 mph at the highest ridges about half that speed at lower ridgelines.
Today will be another stunning day in the mountains with crystal clear skies, sunshine and more warm temperatures rising into the upper 30s to low 40s F. Winds won’t change much except they’ll blow a little more from the north keeping temps a touch cooler than yesterday.
Snow arrives late Friday as a trough of low pressure descends over Montana Friday/Saturday with a short break and then the jet stream lines up overhead and stays in place into next week. Snowfall should come to most places, but at the moment the models are showing Cooke City, West Yellowstone, and Island Park getting snow with inches of water by this time next week. Winds should be fairly strong during this period of snowfall.
All Regions
Wet loose avalanches: Watch out for point releases of wet snow on the surface of the snowpack as things heat up on sunny slopes, especially on slopes with exposed rocks. There was a good refreeze last night, and sunny slopes have been through a few melt freeze cycles which will limit this avalanche activity today..
Old wind slabs: Isolated locations may have a few old wind slabs resting on facets that formed during cold weather over MLK weekend. Time and warm temperatures have helped many of these wind slabs stabilize, but I’d consider this problem if getting into extreme terrain where a very small slide can have severe consequences (like riding above cliffs).
We’re keeping tabs on the snow surface as we prepare to move into a prolonged stormy period. Dave explains it well in this video. Typically the snow surface weakens and facets during clear cold nights and warm sunny days, but especially warm weather has helped limit this process.
Today avalanche conditions are generally safe and the avalanche danger is LOW.
HEADS UP - It has generally been open season with people riding many steep slopes under stable conditions. Moving into a prolonged snowy/windy period, consider changing your mindset to “Stepping Back” for the short term. A small weather change requires a small step back. A big weather change requires a big step back.
KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE
Join us for the King & Queen of the Ridge this Saturday at Bridger Bowl! Hike, ride and help us raise money. It’s a blast! Fundraising prizes for the top 5 individuals who raise over $500. No racing is necessary to compete for the fundraising prizes. Info to fundraise HERE or donate here.
***You must register by TOMORROW, Friday, Jan 31, separately with Bridger Bowl here***
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar
February 20, 4-7 p.m. Beacon BBQ at Uphill Pursuits in Bozeman. Come try out different brands of avalanche transceivers (or practice with your own!) with coaching from Friends of GNFAC instructors and free hotdogs.
Every weekend in Cooke City: Friday at The Antlers at 7 p.m., Free Avalanche Awareness and Current Conditions talk, and Saturday from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. at Round Lake Warming Hut, Free Rescue Practice.
Thank you for sharing observations. Please let us know about avalanches, weather or signs of instability via the form on our website, or you can email us at mtavalanche@gmail.com, or call the office phone at 406-587-6984.